Saturday, February 25, 2017

Weekly Trade Summary: Feb 19-Feb 25

Last week I opened one broken wing butterfly (BWB) on the SPX (May 5 expiration):

(click to enlarge)

I currently have 10 open trades, with expirations in March (3), April (5), and May (2):

(click to enlarge)

Total defined risk for these trades is currently at 64.0% of the account net liquidation value. This risk is broken down into the following groups:
  • 15.8% of net liq - DOTM BWB
  • 48.2% of net liq - core BWB at 75% of target size

Nine trades have been closed this year...eight wins and one loss. Return on the account for the year is at 2.8%.  I will likely open a trade on the May 12 expiration next week, and will evaluate possible trades on futures as well.


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Sunday, February 19, 2017

Weekly Trade Summary: Feb 12-Feb 18

Last week I opened one broken wing butterfly (BWB) on the SPX (April 28 expiration) and adjusted six of my existing put butterflies:

(click to enlarge)
Due to meetings at work I was late in making two of my six adjustments. These late adjustments were made on Feb 17.  The corresponding entries and adjustment descriptions are listed below in the order the adjustments were made.

Trade Entry: Jan 3 - deep out of the money (DOTM) BWB on the Apr 21 exp (see image or post)
Adjustment: Feb 13 - moved 4 of the 10 2180 puts to the 2170 strike for a $0.80 credit
Note: SPX up 101 points from entry (2249.75); DIT 47
(click to enlarge)
Trade Entry: Jan 6 - DOTM BWB on the Mar 10 expiration (see image or post)
Adjustment: Feb 13 - moved 1 of the 2 2210 puts to the 2200 strike for a $0.30 credit
Note: SPX up 72 points from entry (2279.07); DIT 44
(click to enlarge)
Trade Entry: Feb 2 - BWB on the Apr 7 expiration (see image or post)
Adjustment: Feb 13 - moved all 3 of the 2310 puts to 2300 for a $3.05 credit
Note: SPX up 72 points from entry (2278.99); DIT 17
(click to enlarge)
Trade Entry: Jan 24 - BWB on the Mar 31 expiration (see image or post)
Adjustment: Feb 13 - moved all 3 of the 2300 puts to 2285 for a $3.70 credit
Note: SPX up 77 points from entry (2274.32); DIT 26
(click to enlarge)
Trade Entry: Jan 26 - BWB on the Mar 24 expiration (see image or post)
Adjustment: Feb 17 - moved all 3 of the 2325 puts to 2310 for a $3.80 credit
Note: SPX up 55 points from entry (2296.65); DIT 24
(click to enlarge)
Trade Entry: Feb 9 - BWB on the Apr 13 expiration (see image or post)
Adjustment: Feb 17 - moved all 3 of the 2325 puts to 2315 fro a $2.90 credit
Note: SPX up 48 points from entry (2303.16); DIT 10
(click to enlarge)

Some of these adjusted trades will most likely be losing trades.  With so many winning trades this year, I was starting to get uncomfortable...my core BWB has historically had a 75% win rate and I felt I was long overdue for some losers.

I currently have nine open trades, with expirations in March, April, and May. Total defined risk for these trades has increased with this week's adjustments and is currently at 59.9% of the account net liquidation value. This risk is broken down into the following groups:
  • 15.8% of net liq - DOTM BWB
  • 44.1% of net liq - core BWB at 75% of target size
Nine trades have been closed this year...eight wins and one loss. Return on the account for the year is at 2.8%.  With nearly 60% of my account net liq being used, I will most likely not add any trades next week.


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Friday, February 10, 2017

Weekly Trade Summary: Feb 5-Feb 11

Last week I opened two broken wing put butterflies on the SPX (April 13 and April 21 expirations) and closed my crude oil (CL) futures options put butterfly:

(click to enlarge)

The corresponding entry for the CL trade is shown below:

(click to enlarge)

I currently have eight open trades, with expirations in March, April, and May. Total defined risk for these trades is currently at 45.1% of the account net liquidation value. This risk is broken down into the following groups:
  • 12.6% of net liq - deep out of the money broken wing put butterflies
  • 32.5% of net liq - core broken wing put butterflies at 75% of target size
Nine trades have been closed this year...eight wins and one loss.  Based on the statistics for these trades, I had expected more losing trades by this time. The butterfly that I am trading has historically been in the 75% win rate range.  Return on the account for the year is at 2.8%.

I will likely enter one SPX butterfly next week...a core position in the April 28 expiration.  Also, if the SPX continues it's bullish behavior I will make slight adjustments to a few of my open trades.


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Saturday, February 4, 2017

Weekly Trade Summary: Jan 29-Feb 4

Last week I opened two broken wing put butterflies on the SPX (April 7 expiration and May 19 expiration):

(click to enlarge)

I also had one trade expire for a loss.  The corresponding opening trade is shown below:

(click to enlarge)

The expiring trade lost slightly more than my target amount for this trade. Rather than close or adjust this trade in December, I chose to keep it open as a downside hedge through the US presidential inauguration ... just in case.

I currently have seven trades open, with all expiring in March or later. Total defined risk for my seven open trades is currently 32.6% of the account net liquidation value. This risk is broken down into the following groups:
  • 12.5% of net liq - deep out of the money broken wing put butterflies
  • 19.0% of net liq - core broken wing put butterflies at 75% of target size
  • 1.1% of net liq - /CL broken wing put butterfly test
Nine trades have been closed this year...eight wins and one loss.  Based on the statistics for these trades, I had expected more losing trades by this time. The butterfly that I am trading has historically been in the 75% win rate range.  Return on the account for the year is at 2.6%.

I will likely enter two SPX butterflies next week, one core position in the April 14 expiration and one non-core position in the April 21 expiration.  The April 14 expiration series should become available on Thursday.


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