Saturday, April 29, 2017

Weekly Trade Summary: Apr 23 - Apr 29

Last week I closed one trade for a profit and adjusted the trade I entered the prior week. The activity is shown below:

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Original Trade Entry: March 9 - BWB on the May 12 expiration (see this post)
Closed: April 24 - profit

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Original Trade Entry: April 21 - BWB on the Jun 23 expiration (post)
Adjustment: April 25 - added a second BWB on the Jun 23 expiration

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I currently have 5 open trades, with expirations in May (1), June (3), and July (1):

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Total defined risk for these trades is still at 36.8% of the account net liquidation value. This risk is broken down into the following groups:
  • 7.8% of net liq - DOTM BWB - hedges
  • 29% of net liq - core BWB
21 trades have been closed this year...13 wins and 8 losses. Return on the account for the year is at 3.50%.  Total win rate is at 62%.  The win rate on the core trades is at 68% and at the low end of the expected range. Of the 5 open trades, 3 are core and all 3 of the core trades are currently up money.

I have run 10, 10 year backtests on my deep out of the money broken wing butterfly hedges.  While they can work as a decent hedge if timed properly, over time they appear to lose money using my trading approach.  I will phase out this style of hedge in the next few weeks.


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Saturday, April 22, 2017

Weekly Trade Summary: Apr 16 - Apr 22

Last week I expired one core trade and one deep out of the money hedge, and opened two new butterflies (June 23 and June 30 expirations).  The new trades are shown below:

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The entries and adjustments for the trades that expired last week are listed below

Trade Entry: Jan 3 - deep out of the money (DOTM) BWB on the Apr 21 exp (post)
Adjustment: Feb 13 - moved 4 of the 10 2180 puts to the 2170 strike for a $0.80 credit (post)
Expired: Apr 22 - small loss

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Trade Entry: Feb 8 - BWB on the Apr 21 exp (post)
Expired: Apr 22 - small loss

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I currently have 6 open trades, with expirations in May (2), June (3), and July (1):

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Total defined risk for these trades is currently at 36.8% of the account net liquidation value. This risk is broken down into the following groups:
  • 7.8% of net liq - DOTM BWB - hedges
  • 29% of net liq - core BWB
20 trades have been closed this year...12 wins and 8 losses. Return on the account for the year is at 2.84%.  Total win rate is at 60%.  The win rate on the core trades is at 67% and again down at the low end of the expected range. Of the 6 open trades, 4 are core and 3 of the core are currently up money.

I have run 10, 10 year backtests on my deep out of the money broken wing butterfly hedges.  While they can work as a decent hedge if timed properly, over time they appear to lose money using my trading approach.  I will phase out this style of hedge in the next few weeks.


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Saturday, April 15, 2017

Weekly Trade Summary: Apr 9 - Apr 15

Last week I closed two core trades, and did not open any new trades.  My plan was to open one or two new core trades last week, but meetings and travel impacted my trading pretty hard.

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Original Trade Entry: February 23 - BWB on the May 5 expiration (see this post)

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Original Trade Entry: February 17 - BWB on the April 28 expiration (see this post)

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I currently have 6 open trades, with expirations in April (2), May (2), June (1), and July (1):

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Total defined risk for these trades is currently at 36.8% of the account net liquidation value. This risk is broken down into the following groups:
  • 17.1% of net liq - DOTM BWB - hedges
  • 19.7% of net liq - core BWB (all are at the target size of 5 contracts)
18 trades have been closed this year...12 wins and 6 losses. Return on the account for the year is at 3.19%.  Total win rate is at 67%.  The win rate on the core trades is at 71% and within the expected range. Of the 6 open trades, 3 are core and 2 of the core are currently up money.


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Sunday, April 9, 2017

Weekly Trade Summary: Apr 2 - Apr 8

Last week I closed one trade and opened two trades (Core BWB, Deep OOTM BWB).  Travel last week made trading particularly tricky, especially with my flight cancellations and delays on Delta Airlines Wednesday and Thursday.

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Original Trade Entry: March 10 - BWB on the May 19 expiration (see this post)
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I currently have 8 open trades, with expirations in April (3), May (3), June (1), and July (1):
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Total defined risk for these trades is currently at 44.7% of the account net liquidation value. This risk is broken down into the following groups:
  • 17.1% of net liq - DOTM BWB - hedges
  • 27.6% of net liq - core BWB (all but two trades at the target size of 5 contracts)
16 trades have been closed this year...10 wins and 6 losses. Return on the account for the year is at 2.2%.  Total win rate is at 63%.  The win rate on the core trades is at 67% and still on the low side of the expected range. Of the 8 open trades, 5 are core and 3 of the core are currently up money.


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Sunday, April 2, 2017

Weekly Trade Summary: Mar 26 - Apr 1

On vacation last week hiking with the family in Western Colorado.  Wasn't able to enter any new trades, so this weeks metrics are the same as last week's.

I currently have 7 open trades, with expirations in April (3) and May (4):
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Total defined risk for these trades is currently at 39.9% of the account net liquidation value. This risk is broken down into the following groups:
  • 12.3% of net liq - DOTM BWB - hedges
  • 27.7% of net liq - core BWB (at 75% of target size, but increasing with new trades)
15 trades have been closed this year...9 wins and 6 losses. Return on the account for the year is at 1.5%.  Total win rate is at 60%.  Win rate on core trades is at 62% and on the low side of the expected range. Of the 7 open trades, 5 are core and 4 of the core are currently up money.


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